
10/8, Nick was invited by Barclays’ Tim Seeley, Head of Norfolk Corporate to attend a breakfast meeting featuring a half year update on the current economic climate through the eyes of Paul Robinson, Chief Sterling Economist for the Bank. It was held at our IoD hub and Paul was beamed in from Canary Wharf via the video conferencing suite. His talk was brilliant with some interesting opinions voiced.
Here’s some of them;
Firstly this is the worst recession since 1929.
Interest rates look to be going up next year (possibly 2nd qtr) but not by a huge amount and probably not back to 5% yet.
The availability of credit is still sticky, fuelled by the need for banks to reduce their balance sheets and lend cautiously.
Sterling value has been hit badly because the UK was seen, by the rest of the world, as risky. This was because we are heavily reliant on the financial industry, our households are dependent on credit and our government has not put anything away for a rainy day. This negative risk weighting is gradually correcting itself although Sterling will still remain weak because our particular combination of problems is seen globally as British! However Sterling is forecasted to get marginally stronger in the coming months.
Future growth will come from the global economy and trade, not via domestic government or consumer spending. Therefore it will be necessary for the next government to curtail public spending.
This second round of quantitive easing has taken the City by surprise and it is widely thought that, as the Bank of England can only forecast forward by using backwards (or old) data, it is erring on the side of extreme caution in order to stall any dip down again thus producing a W shaped recession.
Finally it was thought that this recession will not follow the shape of a letter (U or W) but, having dived sharply, will recover gently.